The Trump administration proposed new rules Wednesday for regulating prediction markets, seeking to clarify what types of events can be listed for trading on the platforms. The Commodity Futures ...

The Trump administration on Wednesday proposed a set of new federal regulations for prediction markets that appear to largely leave the booming industry intact. Importantly, the new rules would ...

Earlier this year, Thomas Christian Owens decided to try his hand at prediction market trading for the first time. He created a Kalshi account in January. Three months and a $500 deposit later, he ...

Prediction markets, where users can place bets on real-world outcomes in anything from sports and award shows to elections, interest rate decisions, and even military operations, have become a ...

President Donald Trump on Tuesday stressed the importance of establishing the Commodity Futures Trading Commission’s “exclusive authority” over prediction markets and vowed to protect the ...

Conformal prediction is a framework for making reliable predictions with a guaranteed error rate. It provides a way to quantify uncertainty in machine learning models ...

Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz has signed the nation's first law banning prediction market sites from operating in the state, and in response, the Trump administration has sued, teeing up a legal battle over ...

Interactive Brokers IBKR1.34%increase; up pointing triangle is launching a platform where users can place yes-or-no bets through Kalshi, CME Group CME-0.64%decrease; down pointing triangle and its own ...

We have seen the future, and it is Polymarket and Kalshi processing insider bets on mayhem, chaos—and celebrity-wedding guest lists. Prediction markets—online casinos disguised as investment vehicles, ...

The Senate unanimously agreed to a resolution Thursday barring its members from trading on prediction markets in the face of growing concerns about insider trading on the platforms. The resolution, ...

Prediction markets are being touted on social media as a lucrative side hustle for young Americans squeezed by rent and student loan bills. In reality, most traders are losing money, and a significant ...

Polymarket takes over a local bar for a pop-up experience in D.C. on March 20. (Alex Kent/For the Washington Post) Prediction markets are not a new idea. They existed five centuries ago, when people ...